Archive for June, 2010

On Particle Learning

24/06/2010

Our comments with other CREST members on Hedibert Lopes et al.’s Valencia 9 paper “Particle Learning for Sequential Bayesian Computation” are now available on arXiv.

Photo in Chemie in unserer Zeit

16/06/2010

Here’s a journal I never thought I would ever be linked to: Chemie in unserer Zeit, a chemistry journal published by Wiley InterScience, uses my photograph of Antonio Stradivari’s Messiah violin to illustrate an article. The photo was released by me under the free CC-BY-SA 3.0 licence on Wikimedia Commons. It’s also nice to see that the journal takes the time to credit the photographer of an image they found online.

I am also told that the same image is used in a textbook, Chemische Köstlichkeiten (ISBN 9783527327522).

I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?

03/06/2010

A well-known probability riddle is “I have two children. [At least] one is a boy. What is the probability I have two boys?”; the answer is 1/3.

Richard shares a variation (imagined by Gary Foshee) which I find counter-intuitive: “I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?” (Assume uniformity over genders and days of the week.) This is easy to solve, using the method of your choice (1, 2).

Spoiler alert: the answer is 13/27. The addition of a seemingly useless piece of information makes a big difference, which surprised me.